Brady (3529 passing yards, 24 TD, 12 INT) has already established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL postseason history, though his most recent outing against the Colts left something to be desired. In the Week 9 loss at Gillette Stadium, Brady matched a career-high with four interceptions, tempering most of the gains he made in a 20-for-35, 201-yard passing performance. Brady was also bitten by the turnover bug last week, throwing three interceptions but also generating game-tying and game-winning fourth- quarter drives. For the day, Brady completed 27-of-51 passes for 280 yards with a pair of touchdowns. Wideouts Jabar Gaffney (11 receptions, 1 TD) and Reche Caldwell (61 receptions, 4 TD) have been Brady's top targets during the postseason, with Eagles and Texans castoff Gaffney turning in back-to-back 100-yard games against the Jets and Chargers. Caldwell had seven catches for 80 yards and a touchdown against his former team last week. Tight ends Daniel Graham (21 receptions, 2 TD) and Ben Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) have been a major part of the gameplan all season, and veteran wideout Troy Brown (43 receptions, 4 TD) caught five passes in last Sunday's win. The New England offensive line has allowed three sacks in two 2006 playoff games.
Job number one for Brady on Sunday will be avoiding the oncoming rush of Indianapolis ends Dwight Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5 sacks), who have played with a renewed enthusiasm in the 2006 postseason. After exhibiting inconsistent play during the regular season, Freeney and Mathis have combined for three-and-a-half sacks in two 2006 postseason contests. Mathis had five tackles, a sack, and a forced Steve McNair fumble in last Saturday's win over Baltimore. The improved work of the pass rush has made life easier for the Indy secondary, which has four interceptions in its two playoff wins. Rookie safety Antoine Bethea (90 tackles, 1 INT) has two of the picks, including one that stymied a Baltimore drive at the goal line last week. Bethea had an interception of Brady in the Colts' Week 9 victory. Cornerback Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) posted three tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble against the Ravens, but is regarded as questionable for this week with an ankle injury.
One week after struggling to establish the run against the Chargers, New England's three-headed rushing monster of Corey Dillon (812 rushing yards, 13 TD, 15 receptions), Laurence Maroney (745 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 7 TD), and Kevin Faulk (123 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 3 TD) will try to fare better against Indianapolis on Sunday. Dillon and Maroney were shut down to the tune of 23 yards on 13 combined carries, with third-down back Faulk out- performing both players by totaling 25 yards on his six totes. Faulk will be seeking a stronger effort than the one he displayed against Indianapolis in Week 9, when his mishandled attempt at a reception went for a decisive Colts interception. The trio combined for 135 yards on 30 combined rushing attempts in that loss, and Dillon found the end zone twice. New England was 12th in NFL rushing offense (123.1 yards per game) during the regular season.
After becoming infamous for an inability to stop the run during the regular season, the Colts have stopped the run extremely well in the playoffs. A team that surrendered a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry in 2006, the worst figure for an NFL team since 1961, Indy has held running backs Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis to a total of 85 ground yards in the past two games. Much of the credit for that improvement is owed to strong safety Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT), who has posted 13 tackles in two games following an injury-plagued regular season. Linebacker Cato June (142 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who had two picks of Brady back in Week 9, leads Indianapolis with 15 postseason tackles thus far. Linebackers Rob Morris (55 tackles) and Gary Brackett (120 tackleS) have also helped with the run, and defensive tackles Anthony McFarland (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 3 sacks) have provided a presence in the trenches.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
The Colts' run to the AFC Championship game has been strange in that the contribution of the team's best player, quarterback Peyton Manning (4397 passing yards, 31 TD, 9 INT), has been minimal. Manning has just one touchdown pass versus five interceptions in the 2006 postseason, did not engineer a single touchdown drive in Baltimore last Saturday, and has a subpar passer rating of 58.3 in this year's playoffs. Manning's greatest triumph of the postseason to date likely came in the fourth quarter of the win over the Ravens, when he engineered a seven-plus-minute, 13-play drive that led to a decisive Adam Vinatieri field goal. Top wideouts Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 12 TD) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions, 9 TD) have both made big catches in the two playoff games, but tight end Dallas Clark (30 receptions, 4 TD) has served as Manning's top target. Clark's 11 receptions and 144 yards are both Indianapolis 2006 postseason bests. After being sacked a league-low 15 times in the regular season, Manning has been dropped just twice in the playoffs.
The New England secondary was victimized by Manning back in Week 9, when the All-Pro completed 20-of-36 passes for 326 yards with two touchdowns and an ultimately inconsequential Chad Scott (46 tackles, 2 INT) interception. Scott has since been replaced in the lineup by Ellis Hobbs (44 tackles, 2 INT), and Hobbs and fellow corner Asante Samuel (64 tackles, 10 INT) will be charged with the task of slowing Harrison and Wayne on Sunday. With Rodney Harrison (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) considered doubtful due to a lingering knee injury, James Sanders (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is likely to again be featured at the safety slot along with Artrell Hawkins (71 tackles, 1 INT). Sanders and Hawkins combined for 13 tackles and a pair of sacks against San Diego last week. The Patriots did manage to sack Manning three times in the Week 9 loss, with outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (8.5 sacks) breaking through to the quick-triggered signal-caller for a sack-and-a-half.
With the Patriots likely to concentrate most of their defensive efforts on stopping Manning and the Indianapolis passing game, Colts running backs Joseph Addai (1081 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (641 rushing yards, 5 TD, 36 receptions) have the potential to do some damage on Sunday. The two were terrific against Kansas City in the Wild Card round, totaling 190 yards in a winning effort, and kept Baltimore's top-notch defense honest with 95 ground yards on 32 tough carries last Saturday. Addai has also been a major factor in the passing game during his first postseason, as his 10 catches are tied with Wayne for second-most on the team. The Colts were 18th in NFL rushing offense (110.1 yards per game) during the regular season.
The Patriots were able to win in San Diego despite never finding much of an answer for LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers' running game. Tomlinson had 187 combined yards (123 rushing, 64 receiving) on 25 touches with two touchdowns for the day, while backup Michael Turner added 24 ground yards and a TD of his own. The three-man New England front of Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack) in the middle and Richard Seymour (40 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Ty Warren (84 tackles, 7.5 sacks) on the ends will seek to slow Addai and Rhodes at the point of attack. Warren had seven tackles against the Chargers last week, but Wilfork and Seymour were both quiet in the win. Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (112 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT) will try to make some plays behind the front line. Bruschi posted a team-high 11 stops in San Diego, while Vrabel made an impact with six stops, a sack, and a forced fumble. The Patriots were fifth in the league against the run during the regular season (94.2 yards per game), and held Addai and Rhodes to 56 yards on 22 combined carries back in Week 9.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski (20-26 FG) has experienced a solid first postseason for the Pats, connecting on all six of his field goal attempts and hitting a 31-yard game-winner against the Chargers last Sunday. Gostkowski, who also nailed a 50-yarder in San Diego, was 2-for-3 on trifectas against Indy on Nov. 5th. Punter Todd Sauerbrun (40.8 avg.) has been steady, averaging 42.6 yards on nine boots. Laurence Maroney (28.0 kickoff return avg.) and Ellis Hobbs (36.0 kickoff return avg., 1 TD) have taken turns on kickoff returns during the postseason, while Kevin Faulk (10.6 punt return avg.) has been handed punt return duties. New England allowed two punt returns for touchdowns during the regular season.
The sizeable free agent contract the Colts gave ex-Patriot Adam Vinatieri (25-28 FG) during the offseason paid major dividends last week, when Vinatieri scored all of Indianapolis' points in a 5-for-5 field goal performance that included kicks of 51 and 48 yards. Vinatieri, who played in four Super Bowls as a member of the Patriots from 1996 through 2005, was just 2-of-4 on field goals against his former team in Week 9, missing on kicks of 37 and 46 yards. Punter Hunter Smith (44.4 avg.) has been reliable as usual, averaging 42.7 yards per kick in the postseason. Return man Terrence Wilkins (9.2 punt return avg., 1 TD, 24.5 kickoff return avg.) has done a good job getting the Colts advantageous field position, though he had trouble fielding the football cleanly last week in Baltimore.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Colts' defensive performance of the last two weeks has led some to believe that their run-stopping woes are a thing of the past, though that analysis glosses over some important facts. Indy has undoubtedly been better in that area since Bob Sanders' return to the secondary, but has also benefited from playing against Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis, a pair of one-cut, between-the- tackles rushers. The Patriots' running backs (especially Maroney) offer a different set of problems for the Colts, who had their biggest struggles against multi-back attacks like those of the Jaguars and Titans. For that reason, look for New England to have terrific success on the ground, in turn keeping the ball out of Manning's hands for long stretches. When the Indianapolis offense is on the field, Manning will be able to do some damage against a New England secondary that misses Rodney Harrison. But Belichick will throw enough wrinkles at the Colts attack to force Manning into making a major mistake with the game on the line.
(Sports Network) - The NFL's two most consistent teams of the current decade will be in familiar high-stakes roles at the RCA Dome on Sunday night, when the Indianapolis Colts play host to the New England Patriots for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI.
The Colts, who own a regular season record of 60-20 and have made the playoffs in each season of head coach Tony Dungy's five-year tenure, will be trying to make their regular season greatness extend to postseason success for the first time during that era. Indy has suffered a disappointing exit from the playoffs in each of the past five campaigns, including defeats at New England in 2003 and 2004 and a home shocker at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl Champion Steelers last season.
A 3-4 conclusion to the regular season had the Colts' chances of reaching their first Super Bowl since 1970 looking dim, but third-seeded Indianapolis was impressive in back-to-back playoff wins over the Chiefs (23- and Ravens (15-6), and again stands at the precipice of its first AFC title since leaving Baltimore following the 1983 season.
The Colts are 0-3 in AFC Championship games since 1970.
New England, meanwhile, finds itself playing for the conference crown for the fourth time in the last six seasons. The Patriots come off a surprising 24-21 win at top-seeded San Diego last Sunday, a victory that pushed New England's playoff mark during the seven-season Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era to 12-1.
The Patriots, whose three Super Bowl titles make them the front-runner for "Team of the Decade" honors, are 5-0 in Championship games during the Super Bowl era, including 3-0 under Belichick.
SERIES HISTORY
The Patriots and Colts have met twice in the postseason, with New England taking both a 24-14 decision in the 2003 AFC Championship and a 20-3 triumph in a 2004 AFC Divisional Playoff.
The Patriots hold a decisive 41-26 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Colts, but have lost each of the last two meetings with Indy, including a 27-20 home defeat in Week 9. Indianapolis also traveled to New England and earned a 40-21 win during the 2005 campaign. Prior to that matchup, the Patriots had scored four straight regular season victories over Indy, including victories at the RCA Dome in both 2001 and 2003. New England last lost in Indianapolis in 2000.
The Patriots are 31-11, including playoffs, against Indianapolis since the Colts moved from Baltimore following the 1983 season.
Belichick is 9-5 against the Colts all-time (including 7-2 with the Patriots), while Indianapolis' Tony Dungy is 4-4 versus New England (including 2-4 with the Colts). Dungy is 3-4 head-to-head against Belichick, including a victory for Dungy's Buccaneers team in the 2000 campaign.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
Brady (3529 passing yards, 24 TD, 12 INT) has already established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL postseason history, though his most recent outing against the Colts left something to be desired. In the Week 9 loss at Gillette Stadium, Brady matched a career-high with four interceptions, tempering most of the gains he made in a 20-for-35, 201-yard passing performance. Brady was also bitten by the turnover bug last week, throwing three interceptions but also generating game-tying and game-winning fourth- quarter drives. For the day, Brady completed 27-of-51 passes for 280 yards with a pair of touchdowns. Wideouts Jabar Gaffney (11 receptions, 1 TD) and Reche Caldwell (61 receptions, 4 TD) have been Brady's top targets during the postseason, with Eagles and Texans castoff Gaffney turning in back-to-back 100-yard games against the Jets and Chargers. Caldwell had seven catches for 80 yards and a touchdown against his former team last week. Tight ends Daniel Graham (21 receptions, 2 TD) and Ben Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) have been a major part of the gameplan all season, and veteran wideout Troy Brown (43 receptions, 4 TD) caught five passes in last Sunday's win. The New England offensive line has allowed three sacks in two 2006 playoff games.
Job number one for Brady on Sunday will be avoiding the oncoming rush of Indianapolis ends Dwight Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5 sacks), who have played with a renewed enthusiasm in the 2006 postseason. After exhibiting inconsistent play during the regular season, Freeney and Mathis have combined for three-and-a-half sacks in two 2006 postseason contests. Mathis had five tackles, a sack, and a forced Steve McNair fumble in last Saturday's win over Baltimore. The improved work of the pass rush has made life easier for the Indy secondary, which has four interceptions in its two playoff wins. Rookie safety Antoine Bethea (90 tackles, 1 INT) has two of the picks, including one that stymied a Baltimore drive at the goal line last week. Bethea had an interception of Brady in the Colts' Week 9 victory. Cornerback Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) posted three tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble against the Ravens, but is regarded as questionable for this week with an ankle injury.
One week after struggling to establish the run against the Chargers, New England's three-headed rushing monster of Corey Dillon (812 rushing yards, 13 TD, 15 receptions), Laurence Maroney (745 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 7 TD), and Kevin Faulk (123 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 3 TD) will try to fare better against Indianapolis on Sunday. Dillon and Maroney were shut down to the tune of 23 yards on 13 combined carries, with third-down back Faulk out- performing both players by totaling 25 yards on his six totes. Faulk will be seeking a stronger effort than the one he displayed against Indianapolis in Week 9, when his mishandled attempt at a reception went for a decisive Colts interception. The trio combined for 135 yards on 30 combined rushing attempts in that loss, and Dillon found the end zone twice. New England was 12th in NFL rushing offense (123.1 yards per game) during the regular season.
After becoming infamous for an inability to stop the run during the regular season, the Colts have stopped the run extremely well in the playoffs. A team that surrendered a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry in 2006, the worst figure for an NFL team since 1961, Indy has held running backs Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis to a total of 85 ground yards in the past two games. Much of the credit for that improvement is owed to strong safety Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT), who has posted 13 tackles in two games following an injury-plagued regular season. Linebacker Cato June (142 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who had two picks of Brady back in Week 9, leads Indianapolis with 15 postseason tackles thus far. Linebackers Rob Morris (55 tackles) and Gary Brackett (120 tackleS) have also helped with the run, and defensive tackles Anthony McFarland (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 3 sacks) have provided a presence in the trenches.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
The Colts' run to the AFC Championship game has been strange in that the contribution of the team's best player, quarterback Peyton Manning (4397 passing yards, 31 TD, 9 INT), has been minimal. Manning has just one touchdown pass versus five interceptions in the 2006 postseason, did not engineer a single touchdown drive in Baltimore last Saturday, and has a subpar passer rating of 58.3 in this year's playoffs. Manning's greatest triumph of the postseason to date likely came in the fourth quarter of the win over the Ravens, when he engineered a seven-plus-minute, 13-play drive that led to a decisive Adam Vinatieri field goal. Top wideouts Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 12 TD) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions, 9 TD) have both made big catches in the two playoff games, but tight end Dallas Clark (30 receptions, 4 TD) has served as Manning's top target. Clark's 11 receptions and 144 yards are both Indianapolis 2006 postseason bests. After being sacked a league-low 15 times in the regular season, Manning has been dropped just twice in the playoffs.
The New England secondary was victimized by Manning back in Week 9, when the All-Pro completed 20-of-36 passes for 326 yards with two touchdowns and an ultimately inconsequential Chad Scott (46 tackles, 2 INT) interception. Scott has since been replaced in the lineup by Ellis Hobbs (44 tackles, 2 INT), and Hobbs and fellow corner Asante Samuel (64 tackles, 10 INT) will be charged with the task of slowing Harrison and Wayne on Sunday. With Rodney Harrison (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) considered doubtful due to a lingering knee injury, James Sanders (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is likely to again be featured at the safety slot along with Artrell Hawkins (71 tackles, 1 INT). Sanders and Hawkins combined for 13 tackles and a pair of sacks against San Diego last week. The Patriots did manage to sack Manning three times in the Week 9 loss, with outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (8.5 sacks) breaking through to the quick-triggered signal-caller for a sack-and-a-half.
With the Patriots likely to concentrate most of their defensive efforts on stopping Manning and the Indianapolis passing game, Colts running backs Joseph Addai (1081 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (641 rushing yards, 5 TD, 36 receptions) have the potential to do some damage on Sunday. The two were terrific against Kansas City in the Wild Card round, totaling 190 yards in a winning effort, and kept Baltimore's top-notch defense honest with 95 ground yards on 32 tough carries last Saturday. Addai has also been a major factor in the passing game during his first postseason, as his 10 catches are tied with Wayne for second-most on the team. The Colts were 18th in NFL rushing offense (110.1 yards per game) during the regular season.
The Patriots were able to win in San Diego despite never finding much of an answer for LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers' running game. Tomlinson had 187 combined yards (123 rushing, 64 receiving) on 25 touches with two touchdowns for the day, while backup Michael Turner added 24 ground yards and a TD of his own. The three-man New England front of Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack) in the middle and Richard Seymour (40 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Ty Warren (84 tackles, 7.5 sacks) on the ends will seek to slow Addai and Rhodes at the point of attack. Warren had seven tackles against the Chargers last week, but Wilfork and Seymour were both quiet in the win. Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (112 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT) will try to make some plays behind the front line. Bruschi posted a team-high 11 stops in San Diego, while Vrabel made an impact with six stops, a sack, and a forced fumble. The Patriots were fifth in the league against the run during the regular season (94.2 yards per game), and held Addai and Rhodes to 56 yards on 22 combined carries back in Week 9.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski (20-26 FG) has experienced a solid first postseason for the Pats, connecting on all six of his field goal attempts and hitting a 31-yard game-winner against the Chargers last Sunday. Gostkowski, who also nailed a 50-yarder in San Diego, was 2-for-3 on trifectas against Indy on Nov. 5th. Punter Todd Sauerbrun (40.8 avg.) has been steady, averaging 42.6 yards on nine boots. Laurence Maroney (28.0 kickoff return avg.) and Ellis Hobbs (36.0 kickoff return avg., 1 TD) have taken turns on kickoff returns during the postseason, while Kevin Faulk (10.6 punt return avg.) has been handed punt return duties. New England allowed two punt returns for touchdowns during the regular season.
The sizeable free agent contract the Colts gave ex-Patriot Adam Vinatieri (25-28 FG) during the offseason paid major dividends last week, when Vinatieri scored all of Indianapolis' points in a 5-for-5 field goal performance that included kicks of 51 and 48 yards. Vinatieri, who played in four Super Bowls as a member of the Patriots from 1996 through 2005, was just 2-of-4 on field goals against his former team in Week 9, missing on kicks of 37 and 46 yards. Punter Hunter Smith (44.4 avg.) has been reliable as usual, averaging 42.7 yards per kick in the postseason. Return man Terrence Wilkins (9.2 punt return avg., 1 TD, 24.5 kickoff return avg.) has done a good job getting the Colts advantageous field position, though he had trouble fielding the football cleanly last week in Baltimore.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Colts' defensive performance of the last two weeks has led some to believe that their run-stopping woes are a thing of the past, though that analysis glosses over some important facts. Indy has undoubtedly been better in that area since Bob Sanders' return to the secondary, but has also benefited from playing against Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis, a pair of one-cut, between-the- tackles rushers. The Patriots' running backs (especially Maroney) offer a different set of problems for the Colts, who had their biggest struggles against multi-back attacks like those of the Jaguars and Titans. For that reason, look for New England to have terrific success on the ground, in turn keeping the ball out of Manning's hands for long stretches. When the Indianapolis offense is on the field, Manning will be able to do some damage against a New England secondary that misses Rodney Harrison. But Belichick will throw enough wrinkles at the Colts attack to force Manning into making a major mistake with the game on the line.
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